EIU (The economist Intelligent Unit) focused in 6 sectors:
1.Automotive in 2021: clean mobility
Key forecasts:
*After a disastrous 2020, sales of new passenger cars will rise by 15% in 2021, while those of commercial vehicles (CVs) will increase by 16%. Even so, only four countries—China, Turkey, Taiwan and Ukraine—will see annual sales return to 2019 levels.
*The Covid-19 pandemic will force vehicle makers to review their supply chains, production plans and sales operations. Additional risks in 2021 include renewed quarantines, an escalation of the US-China trade war and Brexit.
*The global market for new electric vehicles (EVs) will expand from a predicted 2.5m units in 2020 to 3.4m units in 2021, supported by government incentives, more stringent emissions legislation and new models.
2.Consumer goods and retail in 2021: the shift online
Key forecasts:
* Global retail sales volumes will grow by 3% but still fall 2% short of 2019 levels.
* Asia will be the only region to see 2021 consumer spending exceed pre-pandemic levels, gaining even more importance as a consumer market.
*Online retail will increase its share of total retail sales but face headwinds in the form of regulatory scrutiny, taxes and cyber threats.
global consumer spending; US$ m; 2019=100
3.Energy in 2021: the green recovery
Key forecasts:
*Demand for oil and gas will recover, but weak demand will keep a lid on prices. Upstream oil and gas producers will reduce dividends and cut back on operational and capital spending.
*Solar and wind combined will record the strongest growth among all sources in 2021. Policy drivers, priority on the grid and lower technology costs will make renewables a more attractive investment option.
*Recovery in coal consumption will be weaker than that for oil and gas. Whether demand for coal returns to its 2019 level after 2021 will depend on whether growth in Asia will mitigate structural decline in the US and Europe.
4.Finance in 2021: a rocky recovery
Key forecasts:
* Financial firms will face weak demand for their services, ultra-low interest rates and mounting defaults by businesses and households in 2021.
* Robust levels of reserves, base capital and liquidity should allow most firms to survive.
*Separately, the UK and Hong Kong will begin to chart new courses as financial centres.
5.Healthcare in 2021: in the eye of the storm
Key forecasts:
*After declining in 2020 amid a slump in non-Covid treatment, global healthcare spending will increase by 7% and pharmaceutical sales by 5% in 2021.
* However, budgets for both public and private healthcare will be tight, and pricing pressures may force restructuring among healthcare funds, providers and suppliers.
* New opportunities will emerge in telehealth, as well as in the production and distribution of the much-needed coronavirus vaccines.
6.Telecoms in 2021: the tech wars
Key forecasts:
* Mobile subscriptions and revenue will stage a strong recovery in 2021. Asia and the Middle East will see the strongest growth in mobile usage.
* The US-China trade dispute shows no sign of abating, complicating the prospect of a 5G rollout and increasing costs for operators.
* Consumer 5G is unlikely to take-off in 2021, with the enterprise segment offering greater potential.
posted by gandatmadi46@yahoo.com