U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, according to the Census Bureau’s first estimate. The economy grew at a 6.7 percent yearly pace in the second quarter of 2021, marking a sharp slowdown as the delta surge began.
A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country,” the Census Bureau explained.
The beginning of the delta surge in late July upended an economy that was adding roughly 1 million jobs per month. As cases surged, schools either delayed or canceled in-person education, consumer activity in hard-hit sectors declined and millions of Americans were unable to return to the labor market.
Consumer spending fell off sharply in the third quarter, rising just 1.6 percent after soaring 12 percent higher in the second quarter. The decline in personal consumption expenditures was largely due to a steep drop in spending on autos and auto parts—which have skyrocketed in cost this year—and slowdown in the growth of restaurant, bar, and hotel spending.
Spending on autos and auto parts plummeted by 26.2 percent in the third quarter and dragged goods spending down by 9.2 percent on the whole. Spending on services rose by 7.9 percent, a decline from 11.5 percent in the second quarter.
“Third quarter GDP came in lower than expected, mainly due to a steeper-than-expected drop in consumer spending,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Economists largely attributed third-quarter slowdown to the impact of the resurgent pandemic, which has also caused global chaos in supply chains. While most remain optimistic that the U.S. economy has already begun to improve, the drop poses another political challenge for President Biden amid high inflation and uncertainty over when prices will ease.
In a Thursday thread on Twitter, the White House Council of Economic Advisors acknowledged that growth came in “below expectations at a slower pace” in the previous three months but highlighted a strong increase in inventories and boost in spending by state and local governments.
From the great financial crisis to the great lockdown, and beyond
Prof Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a French economist, Angela Chan Professor of Management at the University of California, Berkeley, where he also directs the Clausen Center for International Business and Policy and is affiliated with the Haas School of Business. His research focuses on macroeconomics, in particular international macroeconomics and international finance. In 2008, Gourinchas received the Prize of the Best Young Economist of France
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas studied at the École Polytechnique (1987-90), École des Ponts et Chaussées (1990-93), and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1993-96), obtaining a Ph.D. from the last with a thesis on exchange rates and consumption under Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero and Rudiger Dornbusch.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi atau produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia pada kuartal III-2021 mencapai 3,51% secara year on year (yoy), lebih rendah dari kuartal sebelumnya yang sebesar 7,07%. Angka realisasi ini juga di bawah proyeksi Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) terbaru yang menyebut angka 4,5%.
Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Margo Yuwono menyebutkan, dengan sejumlah perkembangan pada kuartal III-2021, terutama dengan adanya pembatasan mobilitas masyarakat (PPKM) karena merebaknya varian Delta Covid-19, perekonomian Indonesia berdasarkan besaran PDB atas dasar harga berlaku adalah sebesar Rp 4.325,4 triliun, sedangkan atas dasar harga konstan tercatat Rp 2.815,9 triliun.
“Dengan besaran PDB tersebut, kalau kita hitung, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan III-2021 secara qtq (triwulan III-2021 dibandingkan triwulan II-2021) adalah 1,55%. Sedangkan bila dibandingkan triwulan III-2020 (year on year/yoy) perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh 3,51%,” ujar Margo dalam telekonferensi pers soal pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia kuartal III-2021 di Kantor Pusat BPS, Jakarta, Jumat (5/11/2021).
Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia secara komulatif yaitu kuartal I-2021 hingga kuartal III-2021 dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu tercatat tumbuh 3,24%.
Real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022
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