What Will Cause The Next Recession


Joseph Stiglitz

Published on May 6, 2019

Noble Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz offers his thoughts on what might cause the next recession from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He dives into three major headwinds facing the global economy: Trump’s protectionism, stagnation in the Eurozone, and potentially unstable growth in China. Stiglitz also chimes in on Universal Basic Income (UBI), saying he’s not “a big UBI ”. He talks about cryptocurrencies as well, offering his concerns on how they facilitate illegal activities and suggesting authorities ban them altogether.

Paul Krugman

Published on Apr 22, 2019

Paul Krugman says Universal Basic Income would cost more than what is politically possible at the moment, or the amount of money people would receive would be inadequate. The Nobel Prize winning economist says the U.S. should focus more on targeted programs as an alternative, like universal healthcare and child care support.

He also discusses what could cause the next recession, stagnant wages, redistribution and geographic income inequality. Political philosopher and economist Karl Widerquist remembers a poll from 10 years ago that showed just 12 percent of Americans approved of a universal basic income. That’s changed — and quickly. Today, 48 percent of Americans support it, according to a new Northeastern University/Gallup survey of more than 3,000 U.S. adults.

The survey looked at universal basic income as a solution for Americans who have lost jobs to automation. “It represents an enormous increase in support,” said Widerquist, an associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and an advocate for a universal basic income. “It’s really promising.” Proposals for universal basic income programs vary, but the most common one is a system in which the federal government sends out regular checks to everyone, regardless of their earnings or employment. Pilots of such programs are underway in Finland and Canada.

In rural Kenya, a basic income is managed by nonprofit GiveDirectly. India — with a population of more than 1.3 billion residents — is considering establishing a universal basic income. Some projects are happening closer to the U.S. Y Combinator Research, based in Oakland, California, started a test of a basic income last year and is raising funds to expand the research project.

This year in Stockton, California, Mayor Michael Tubbs’ Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration will give several dozen low-income families $500 each month in a study of basic income. Alaska residents have each received a payment annually for decades from the Alaska Permanent Fund, which has ranged from around $330 to more than $2,000. These examples are an opportunity to debunk many of the myths about a universal basic income, said Guy Standing, co-founder of the Basic Income Earth Network. He recently spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on the subject. “The claim is often made that if you give people a basic income, they’ll become lazy and stop doing work,” Standing said. “It’s an insult to the human condition.

Basic incomes tend to increase people’s work rather than reduce it.” That’s because research has shown that a basic income can improve people’s mental and physical health, Standing said, as well as encourage them to pursue employment for reasons more meaningful than just a need to put food on the table. Rising inequality and its vast effects have triggered a “perfect storm” for basic income, Standing said. “People are saying, ‘Look we cannot let inequality continue to grow, because the political consequences could be a disaster’,” Standing said, pointing to the recent rise of more authoritarian figures. Even amid a booming economy, wage growth has been sluggish.

At the same time, the list of jobs robots are able to fill is growing more impressive (and perhaps worrisome). The Northeastern University/Gallup survey showed that three-quarters of Americans believe machines will take away more jobs than they’ll generate. “We don’t need to threaten people with homelessness and poverty to get them to work,” Widerquist said. “It’s capitalism where income doesn’t start at zero.” Still, the survey found that 52 percent of Americans do not support a basic income.

The chances of a universal basic income coming to pass are highly unlikely, said Robert Greenstein, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. By his estimates, a program providing everyone with $10,000 annually could cost more $3 trillion a year. That big of a bill is more likely to increase poverty than reduce it, he said, because other programs like Social Security and Medicare would need to be cut.

diposting oleh gandatmadi46@yahoo.com


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